Nursha Askar, Ph.D
To draw a conclusion it can be observed that opposition and state authorities currently experience incompatible goals. And there are no indications of the state leadership's willingness to work together with the current opposition politicians to build a strong and democratic state. There is potential both for constructive and destructive conflict resolution between opposition and authorities.
Upcoming presidential elections in Kazakhstan in 2006 are pushing Nursultan Nazarbayev toward a stronger anti-opposition stance. In the aftermath of post-elections escalation in the political process “Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan”, the most radical opposition party, was liquidated following to the court decision in the beginning of January 2005. President Nazarbayev is reconsolidating his power and social base. He is trying to overplay his opponents and force them to accept his strategy of democratization “from above”.At the same time to tackle the roots of public discontent the president has reinforced economic development programs and initiated constitutional reforms designed to expand controlling functions of parliament. So democracy in Kazakhstan is likely to be managed by the authorities for a long period of time.
A number of key questions should also be addressed to the opposition parties. There is no confidence that existing opposition leaders can present better alternative to president Nazarbayev and make a better job for the country. Neither authoritarian ruling methods, nor opposition goals enjoy full popular support. Kazakhstan needs different types of democratization and modernization strategies - more democratic and more persistent in defending country’s historical cultural traditions.
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2. “Constitutional Law of the Republic of Kazakhstan on the First President of the Republic of Kazakhstan dated July 20, 2000 No. 83-II.” Kazakhstanskaya Pravda, ¹ 184-185, July 22, 2000.
3. “National Policy in the Republic of Kazakhstan” on Official web-site of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, http://www..president.kz.
4. “Naselenie Respubliki Kazakhstan po Stepeni Vladenia Gosudarstvennym i Drugimi Yazykami (Census of 1999)” on Official web-site of Agency on Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan, http://www.stat.kz.
5. “O Chislennosti, Razmeschenii i Natzionalnom Sostave Naselenia Respubliki Kazakhstan (po Itogam Perepisi 1999 Goda)”, see also: “O Chislennosti naselenia Respubliki Kazakhstan na 1 oktyabrya 2004 Goda (November 23, 2004)“ on Official web-site of Agency on Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan, http://www.stat.kz.
7. “Naselenie Respubliki Kazakhstan po Stepeni Vladenia Gosudarstvennym i Drugimi Yazykami (Census of 1999)” on Official web-site of Agency on Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan, http://www.stat.kz.
8. “Background Note: Kazakhstan” on Official web-site of the U.S. Department of State (October 2004), http://www.state.gov.
9. GDP growth in 2004 to be 9.3 percent “ Kazinform News Agency, November 9, 2004.
10. Republican Party “Otan”, led by president – 42 seats (60.6%), Republican Party “Asar”, led by Dariga Nazarbayeva, the daughter of president – 4 seats (11.4%), “Agrarian- Industrial Union of workers” (AIST) (Bloc of Civic and Agrarian parties) – 11 seats (7.1%), Democratic Party – 1 seat (0.8 %), Democratic Party of Kazakhstan “Ak Zhol” – 1 seat (12.0%).
11. Laughland, John. “Georgia on their mind. “ The Guardian, April 1, 2004.
Nursha Askar, Ph.D.
Lecturer of International Relations Department, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University (Kazakhstan)